Q: Do you ever worry about someone attempting to target you for click fraud?
A: Not at all. Google has the issue totally under control. Besides, the advertisers correct click fraud by lowering the price of each click by what they think the cost of fraud is. ...
People who bring up this issue--like the press--don't understand that Google Adword buyers are very, very smart and take into account a certain level of fraud ...
There is an acceptable fraud level in any economic system...(emphasis mine)
Even though an AdSense publisher who basically benefits from any click fraud that happens isn't really the right person to ask, I think his points are partially good:
His statement that AdWords advertisers are very smart about all of this is not that accurate. It's been estimated that under 30% of AdWords advertisers use any conversion tracking. So while there may be a small number of AdWords buyers who are very smart and have enough data to know how to adjust for click fraud, the vast majority are in the dark about it.
PS. Read the whole interview. It includes gems like this:
If I were trying to beat Google I would do three things: 1. disclose the % of the split, 2. give a floor CPM, and 3. direct sell CPM based advertising on top websites.