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7/21/2006
  Google: A BIG one-trick pony
Paul Kedrosky throws some snark at Google - recycling Charlene Li's now tired "one-trick pony" line. He's interpreting Hitwise data to claim that all the other products Google released don't add up to a hill of beans compared to Google's search traffic.

Well, he's right - but only in comparison - simply because Google has HUGE page views in search. comScore and Nielsen estimate about 5B / month US searches, but I think it's more like 10-12B / month. So let's look at the chart another way.

Here are the top 10 Google domains, and from Hitwise data, the share of traffic (page views) each sub-site gets (for the week ending July 15, 2006). I've added a column to show what the page views would be if we assume that Google.com search gets 3B views per week in the US.

Site % of all Google views Est. Page Views per WeekAvg. Views / second
Google 79.6% 3,000,000,0004960
Google Image Search 8.6% 322,491,523533
Google Mail 6.0% 224,915,233373
Google News 1.4% 51,990,45686
Google Maps 0.9% 35,413,78959
Blogger 0.6% 22,227,80437
Google Video Search 0.5% 17,706,89429
Google Groups 0.5% 17,706,89429
Froogle 0.5% 16,953,41028
Orkut 0.3% 12,055,75820

So those are some pretty healthy sized websites. Just for fun, I added the fourth column of average views per second...

My comment on Paul's post is that Google's next big thing (if it ever comes) won't grow incrementally, but will have usage growth like YouTube or MySpace. In other words, to be anything like the scale of Google search, it'll have to be revolutionary.

Not many companies create two revolutionary products, but I think Google could be an exception.

BTW, I originally created that table in Google Spreadsheets, but there's no easy way to embed a spreadsheet in a page, like there is with Google Maps.

 


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